The area formerly known as Rust Belt

[Teri]

We became the Rust Belt due to manufacturing, but the fact is that Ohio is an agricultural state.

I propose that we become the Green Belt, or the Water Belt- except that the Water Belt might be remind the Sand Belt (formerly known as the Sun Belt) to come calling, demanding to tap into our greatest resource. Instead, I'll call it the Green Belt, for our lush, fertile soil and the natural beauty of our area.

Just a little shift in perception makes all the difference.

[john morris]

I said that. We have to stop making the assumption that everyone who doesn't move here or expand a business here just needs to know more about us. A lot of people do know the area well and have operated businesses in the region for years and see the area as a tough place to do business.

Unions as they exist today in the Rust Belt are probably percieved as the biggest single problem.

[Teri]

Whoever mentioned right to work states- yeah. That's a huge problem for those of us with ties, or former ties, to the auto industry, and I agree that few things would have more positive impact than for Ohio to become a right to work state.

[john morris]

OOPs, the last comment was made by John.

[Jean McClung]

Up till about 5 years ago, I was a life long New Yorker and in general, I just didn't see that net effect from immigration in NY. The second huge wave really hit in the late 70's and early eighties when NYC had very high rates of crime and unemployment. Immigrants to a very large extent seemed to fill niches people didn't know were there opening up small businesses like small street vendor or opened stores in a lot of neigborhoods with few grocers or underground businesses like dollar vans and jypsie cabs which served the poorer and more out of the way neigborhoods. Nail Salons might be a really good example of this-- how many people used to get their nails done regularly before Vietnamese immigrants opened up nail salons all over. Previously, it was likely just not convenient or cheap enough for the average person. That's also probably what happened with a lot of landscaping. A lot of people who did their own yardwork or chores hired available immigrants.

I'm not saying there can't be some drag on wage rates but really that tends to just hurt the very unskilled. The main effect is just more business and economic growth all around. The Korean grocer who opens up a new store is supporting delivery people, using utilities, paying rent, buying things etc.. and that almost surely supports more jobs than if he wasn't there. Just look at the general unemployment trends in NY- and search for higher unemployment and falling wage rates which is what one would expect if immigrants were a pure negative.

By the way, I'm pretty sure that the demographic trend in much of the rust belt is towards rapidly aging populations and labor shortages. It's sick that America's fastest shrinking cities tend to be against immigration.

As to Sean's comment, Yes corruption and bad government is almost everywhere but we just can't afford it here. Areas right on the coasts with huge inbuilt advantages in ports, huge pools of skilled labor etc.. can perhaps afford sme of this. People are just gonna move on.

[Teri]

John-

>If all immigrants came to the country with exactly the same skills, knowledge, talents and all pursued the same jobs, then they would just drive down wage rates in those fields. This is not the case at all.

Interestingly, the reports I hear, I'll try to find the source, say that illegal immigrants are beginning to leave parts of California due to a lack of jobs. The question from residents is "How will I be able to get my house re-roofed? Or landscaped? Or who is going to build my new kitchen?" These workers did drive down wages in parts of the country. The Sand Belt was built on the backs of illegal immigrants- regardless of all the skills these workers brought with them, the skills they most put to use were a tolerance for long hours and manual labor.

Which of course doesn't solve the Rust Belt problems, unless, in Ohio, we translate that to farm labor for use in the biotech industries, I suppose.

[Teri]

Sean-

>Bad governance, corruption, and anti intellectualism, are amongst a slew of such realities.


Bad governance, corruption are hardly exclusive to the Rust Belt. Wall Street is not Main Street and California is bankrupt. As for anti-intellectualism...? I find that phrase so offensive, there is no way to respond.

>I can see universities leading the charge; providing grants; encouraging partnership with business, and helping graduate students with getting business start-ups off the ground.

I think that's key. We have some of the best universities in the nation, we need to do a better job of retaining graduates.

[john morris]

Sean, the market for unskilled labor is pretty efficient. People go where they hear there are jobs which is why most of the rust belt is not attracting them.

But the whole issue of defining -- "skilled" and "unskilled" is complex. I've spent a lot of time in NYC taxicabs and discovered that many of the drivers are not unskilled at all. Many speak several languages and hold foreign university degrees but they have yet to adapt these skills to the U.S. job market yet, get locally licensed in their trade etc, or often start their own businesses. One of the primary assets many have is knowledge of foreign markets and foreign business and family ties which will be of great value in developing exports to the countries they are from..

One has to look at things in a very detailed way. If all immigrants came to the country with exactly the same skills, knowledge, talents and all pursued the same jobs, then they would just drive down wage rates in those fields. This is not the case at all. Most immigrants have what are called complimentary skills which add to the total base of skilled labor. Ask yourself this simple question-- Who tends to cook better Italian, Greek, Mexican or Vietnamese food? The answer is obvious. During the Y2K crisis, Indian computer geeks were of value because they had experience with older computer languages than Americans since India was still using a greater number of older machines. Eastern European Auto mechanics often are experts on fixing old car models. They also honestly fill gaps in very low wage, difficult jobs like migrant farm work and meat packing which Americans truely do not want.

[Sean Posey]

Bad perceptions are quite often backed up by bad realities in the Rust Belt: Bad governance, corruption, and anti intellectualism, are amongst a slew of such realities.

As far as immigration goes, the key is attracting skilled and not unskilled labor. The Rust Belt has plenty of low skilled workers but not nearly enough educated professionals. However, it's going to take a great deal of inducement to attract workers and business to an area with a very negative public perception, as well as bad weather, and worse politics. I can see universities leading the charge; providing grants; encouraging partnership with business, and helping graduate students with getting business start-ups off the ground.

[john morris]

The only way things can change is if people look and see if bad perceptions aren't backed by bad realities and be very direct and specific about it.

Two areas come to mind off the bat. The first is unions and union work rules. For whatever reason, states in America with right to work laws seem to be doing much better at attracting and retaining manufacturers. Why is this? Honestly, I'm a self employed artist and sometime investor without a deep knowledge of this issue, but it seems pretty obvious that one needs to look very honestly at it-- especially, since employers often state this as a big reason they don't invest more here.

As second area is, openess to immigration and labor mobility. Almost all the fastest growing, thriving areas of our economy have been very open to the benefits of attracting new people with new ideas and skills. Almost all the major high tech CEO's have stated that being able get the best people for the job from all over the world is key to their company's growth. But, insanely many of the regions of the country which attract very few foreign workers violently resist immigration. This sends a pretty powerfull signal.

A third area, is a general perception of petty corruption in local and state governments which is sadly also backed by a lot of reality.

[Teri]

>Greater interest in local products and food will also be aided by higher transport price trends.

Good point. On the macro level that is going to be an important trend.

> The unspoken secret is that a lot of the rust belt is considered a difficult, antagonistic place to do business. Some of this is perception but a lot of it isn't.

I hear that as well, but that is going to have to change. Right now it's adapt or die for Dayton Ohio. I'm optimistic in our ability to make the changes - smart changes needed to adjust. Change is painful, but not without it's benefits.